Top Ten: Players to be Cautious of for Fantasy

Before I get started, I want to take the time to state that these are just my opinions of  players that have either statistically been good in years past, or who I do not believe will play up to their potential this year. These are just tips as well as a heads up to watch out for these players in upcoming fantasy drafts. I would be happy to have a lot of these players on my fantasy team; however, I just want to make sure that you are wary about drafting some of these players too early for the production that they will most likely give you. I also won my fantasy baseball league last year which basically makes me an expert.

10. Jose Bautista (TOR)

Jose Bautista

With that in mind, I’ll start with number  10, Jose Bautista. Bautista has put up unreal power numbers in the last few seasons, but a wrist injury that he suffered last year worries me. Power is his complete game because he is not going to wow anyone with his average (.241 last year, .253 for his career). Despite his injury he was able to put up 27 bombs, but I would be cautious to draft him too high, relying on him to produce at the level that he has in previous years coming off of a serious wrist injury that could definitely limit his power numbers. 

It’s hard for me to bet against a guy who hit 134 homeruns between September 2009 and July 2012, but he is definitely under my radar for players to be cautious of because of his wrist. If healthy, I have no doubt that Bautista could produce at the level that he has the last 3 years (roided or not).

9. Carl Crawford (LAD)                                                           

Carl Crawford

Crawford is another guy coming off of an injury, but I do not think that his injury will hinder him as much as Bautista’s. My concern with Crawford is his tremendous “upside.” He’s a guy who was virtually a fantasy MVP in 2009 hitting .305 with 15 bombs and 60 stolen bases. But now on the wrong side of 30, fantasy owners should be wary about drafting Crawford too high, expecting similar numbers. He isn’t likely to put up steal numbers anywhere near his old totals and I don’t really expect him to hit above .280 either. And as a guy without great power numbers, I feel as though there are a lot better players that could give the same value as Crawford much lower in the draft.

Now as a Dodger fan, I really hope that Crawford absolutely tears up the NL West this year. I would be ecstatic if he proved me wrong, but unfortunately I think Crawford’s best years are behind him and there are a lot better values in the outfield for where Crawford is projected to be picked.

8. Jim Johnson (BAL)

Johnson is a guy who had a stellar year last year as the closer for the Orioles racking up 51 saves. But when you look at the overall picture, his saves don’t seem as impressive. The Orioles set an MLB record for one run games last year and Johnson clearly benefitted from it statistically last year. He is a great pitcher, don’t get me wrong, but I find it extremely unlikely that he can put up numbers anywhere near his last year’s total.

Jim Johnson

Also concerning are Johnson’s strike out numbers. In reality, no one cares how the closer gets it done, as long as he can get the last three outs of the game. But this is fantasy baseball we are talking about and numbers mean everything. He had only 41 strikeouts all year and in a year where relievers set a Major League record for strikeouts per 9 innings (8.37), Johnson was well below the league average. I would love to have him closing down games for me in real life, but as a predicted top 5 closer in fantasy, I would be very cautious taking him when there are others with greater value below him.

7. Derek Jeter (NYY)

Derek Jeter

Apart from the recent news that Jeter may start out his 2013 campaign on the DL, I had already made up my mind that Jeter would not produce at the level he did last year. Jeter suffered a foot injury at the end of last year, then fractured his ankle in the ALCS possibly as a result of playing on that injured foot. Obviously, sidelining him at the beginning of the year is just a precaution but it does make me worry about how productive Jeter really can be this year.

He came off a great year where he had over 200 hits and hit .316 but at 39 years of age and with a shaky ankle I am not sure he will be able to put up similar numbers in 2013. Also, as a guy who hits the ball on the ground a ton (63.7 percent), I don’t know if he will be able to beat out as many infield singles on his bummed ankle. I have always loved Jeter and the way he played the game, but as for a fantasy player, I feel as though his value is dwindling fast.

6. Chase Headley (SD)

Chase Headley is seen to be a young and rising star in the MLB and his numbers last year showed that he could be up for discussion as one of the top hitting 3^rd basemen in baseball. But where did his sudden numbers come from? We are talking about a guy who hit 27 homeruns total between 2009-2011 and then erupted for 31 last year to go along with 115 RBIs. 

Chase Headley

This spring training, Headley did suffer a fracture to his left thumb and he is likely to miss the beginning of the year. Regardless of his injury, I believe that Headley isn’t likely to put up the same power numbers as last year. Because of his career numbers, I find it hard to believe that he could put up another 30 homeruns this year. As he is projected as the number three 3^rd basemen in a lot of drafts, I would be skeptical to draft him as high expecting the same output as last year.

5. Alex Rios (CWS) 

Alex Rios

Alex Rios has been known throughout his career to be an on and off player. In 2011 he hit only .227 with 13 homeruns but then he bounced back last year to hit .304 with 25 bombs. With this year slated to be a down year, I am skeptical to believe that Rios will have another year like he did in 2012. There is also a possibility that he moves from 5^th to 3^rd in the White Sox line up which could either greatly help or hurt fantasy owners depending on Rios’ production.

When Rios is playing at his best, he could be considered one of the top outfielders in the game; however, his track record has shown that after a statistically solid year, he tends to tank. Rios is the kind of guy I would love to have as my 4^th outfielder in fantasy and if he plays to his potential, he could work his way up to a starter, but I would be cautious as to draft him high expecting another .300 season from him.

4. Jon Lester (BOS)

Jon Lester

Lester had a rough year last year going 9-14 with a 4.82 ERA. It was an awful year for the Red Sox in general as they went an abysmal 69-93, the worst in franchise history since 1965. In watching Lester pitch last year, he just seemed to be off. Although the velocity was there, he seemed to lack command and often left the ball up in the zone, resulting in his first full season where he had more hits than innings pitched. And not only was he giving up hits, but he was getting hit hard often.

Lester is the kind of guy that a lot of people expect to bounce back in 2013 because from 2009-2011 he was one of the top statistical pitchers in baseball. Maybe he just had a down year last year, but if Lester doesn’t make some adjustments, I would not be surprised to see another down year for the southpaw. He could be a solid reserve pitcher, but I would not trust him in the number 2 slot where many predict he will be.

3. Ryan Dempster (BOS)

Ryan Dempster

Dempster started out the 2012 season on fire while posting a sub 2.00 ERA for almost half of the season. His performance made him a hot commodity at the trade deadline as playoff hopefuls attempted to boost their starting rotations. He ultimately landed with the Rangers where he had an awful second half of the season with a 5.09 ERA.

Many say that he just needs to get acquainted with the American league and expect another solid season out of Dempster, but I only foresee a mediocre season from Dempster as he now has to face one of the toughest divisions in baseball. In coming to the American league for the second half of the season, Dempster gave up almost the same amount of hits in 35 less innings of work. Like Lester, I would not want to trust a guy like Dempster as my number 2 fantasy pitcher.

2. Melky Cabrera (TOR)

Despite all of the cloudiness surrounding Cabrera because of his positive test for PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs) in the latter half of the 2012 season, the Blue Jays decided to take a shot at the lefty outfielder. Cabrera set an unbelievable mark last year hitting .346 before serving his 50 game suspension. Although there is no evidence that Cabrera’s production will decrease as a result of his stoppage of taking PEDs, drafting Melky high expecting similar numbers is extremely risky. 

Melky Cabrera

Before the last two seasons where Cabrera was juicing, he was a career .260 hitter without much pop. Recently, there have also been rumors that Cabrera could serve another suspension if evidence comes up proving that last year was not his first offense for taking PEDs. Maybe it’s just me, but I’d rather not waste a solid OF draft pick on a guy that might not even end up being in my lineup for the major chunk of the year.

1. Tim Lincecum (SF)

Tim, the freak, Lincecum put up some freaky numbers last year for a 2 time Cy Young award winner. Despite winning consecutive Cy Young awards in the 2008 and 2009 seasons as well as finishing in the top 10 in the voting for 2010 and 2011 seasons, Lincecum finished the 2012 campaign with an abysmal 5.18 ERA while going 10-15 on the year. Much of his struggles could be attributed to his decline in his fastball velocity. Lincecum averaged 92.2 MPH on his fastball in 2011 while he only averaged 90.3 MPH in 2012.

Tim Lincecum

As a power pitcher his whole career, Lincecum has been able to blow the ball by hitters while baffling them with his change-up. But it 2012, the decline in his velocity made not only his fastball easier to hit, but his change-up much less effective. There are many that believe Lincecum just had a down year last year, but it was kind of strange to me that a player supposed to be in the prime of his career at 28 years old would lose 2 full MPH off of his fastball. Perhaps the doubters were right, that Lincecum’s small stature and frame would not be able to hold for an extended MLB career. Perhaps Lincecum recreates himself as a finesse pitcher in 2013, but as of right now, I don’t trust him.

 -Daniel Kolodin